Quick Take — E-commerce as seen by McKinsey

Ecommerce sales in the US grew by 18% per year between 2019 and 2023 driven by the brutal impact of Covid, according to an analysis by McKinsey.

For the coming years, the growth rate is expected to ‘normalise’ around a more modest, but still good 6% per year.

The cost of delivery is considered the most important factor by consumers.

speed remained a key factor, but many consumers are prepared to wait up to 3 days (tending to be no longer) to receive their parcel.

Increasingly important instead is flexibility in delivery and ease of return.

Quick Take — Fourth quarter comparable sales increased 4.6% for Walmart’s US operations. Slowdown expected for next year due to ‘Trump factor’

For the fiscal year 2025, Walmart’s sales were $681.0 billion, up 5.1%. Operating income increased by $2.3 billion, or 8.6%, growing faster than sales. The company increased its dividend by 13% to 94 cents per share, its largest increase in more than a decade.. Great e-commerce progression. But Trump’s policies sow uncertainty about the future and a possible slowdown in sales: “Uncertainty about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policies is dampening expectations for how consumer spending will hold up this year. Just look at Walmart, which today projected that its revenue growth this fiscal year would slow to between 3% and 4%, compared with 5% for the year that ended Jan. 31, 2025″ Theo Wayt

Compiled 20 February, updated 21 February 2025