Quick Take — McDonald’s and Wendy’s affected by deportations ordered by the White House

According to the research firm Technomic, sales growth at fast-food chains slowed sharply in 2024 and 2025.

McDonald’s announced this month that it would slow the pace of new openings, whilst Wendy’s and Subway have closed hundreds of outlets over the past year. This shift comes at a difficult time for the fast-food sector, with inflation eroding disposable income.

With a birth rate below replacement level for much of the past 50 years, the United States has relied almost exclusively on immigration for population growth.

However, economists estimate that last year, for the first time in decades, more people left the United States than entered, due to restrictive immigration measures and the Trump administration’s intensified deportations.

According to government data, nearly 3 million people left the United States last year, including those deported and those who left voluntarily…

There is also the fact that employers fear a labour shortage as many immigrants lose their protected status.

A recent Supreme Court ruling has paved the way for the Trump administration to end a humanitarian programme that has allowed around one million immigrants to work legally in the United States…

Below: the decline in customer visits to fast-food restaurants and one of the ICE detention centres (The New York Times).

Quick Take — US: new products, smaller packages and offers to attract inflation-weary customers

From Clorox to Kraft Heinz, US companies are finally realising that half of American consumers cannot afford what they are selling.

To appeal to cash-strapped, inflation-weary shoppers, companies are launching smaller, cheaper products, launching value packages and, in some cases, reversing price increases.

Coca-Cola is selling soft drinks in ‘skinnier’ and cheaper bottles. Target has new offerings in its toy department for $5. ..

McDonald’s has already reported the difficulties of its franchisees….

Walmart executives – after sounding the alarm about petrol – said last week they had lowered the price on 7,200 items and planned to use the company’s tariff refund (on duties) to fund further price cuts.

The retailer also indicated a promotion in which it offers hamburgers, hot dogs, sandwiches and all other essentials for a meal that feeds eight people for less than $5 per person.

The Wall Street Journal

Quick Take — DoorDash – which owns Deliveroo – ended 2025 as the leading third-party marketplace by order volume in the US food and retail sector

DoorDash makes home deliveries but also does Quick Commerce . It works with large chains from McDonald’s to Walmart. It offers service to restaurants to build their online presence and handle direct orders. In 2025 it acquired Deliveroo.

...An integration with ChatGPT now allows users to go from browsing recipes in their AI-based conversations directly to the DoorDash shopping cart..

Marketplace gross order value reached $29.7 billion in the quarter (*), an increase of 39%. Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was $213 million, up 51% year-on-year, and adjusted EBITDA grew 38% to $780 million..

The company ended 2025 with over 56 million monthly active users and over 35 million paying subscribers through its DashPass, Wolt and Deliveroo Plus subscription programmes… Progressive Grocer

(*) if you multiply by 4 it makes $118.8 billion

Compiled 25 February, updated 26 February 2026

JBS: skyrocketing meat prices in the US amid use of anti-obesity drugs and increasing protein consumption

The anti-obesity molecule revolution is challenging the model of the industry giants, which could lose up to USD 90 billion in the US by 2031. As a result, multinationals are trying to switch to Europe and a more protein-rich offer. And US restaurants – given the level of meat inflation – are struggling and reducing staff and portions of their dishes

Quick Take — US Christmas shopping: inflation and job losses are compounded by expectations of a slowdown in retail and hospitality sales

during the busiest time of the year. The job site ZipRecruiter said retailers advertise 8.4 per cent fewer holiday jobs on its site than last year (Financial Times), while ads for temporary hospitality workers fell by 12 per cent.

Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas predicts that US employers could hire fewer than 500,000 temporary workers in the last three months of 2025, the lowest total since 2009. Amazon said it will hire the same 250,000 seasonal workers this year as last year.

The latest indicators from the University of Michigan – from Bloomberg – are not positive: savings and ability to buy durable goods down and expectations of losing a job up.

Consumer sentiment is at its lowest level since June 2022. And Wendy’s will close hundreds of shops as consumers cut back on restaurant spending.(McDonald’s did better but)

Compiled 7 November, updated 8 November 2025