Edited 17 December , updated 18 December 2024
Kuleba: ‘If Russia wins in Ukraine, the West will lose itself’
by Federico Fubini
Dmytro Kuleba, 43, has not lost a thread of energy since Volodymyr Zelensky begged him to step aside two months ago. For many in Kiev, he had become a foreign minister with too high a profile for such a centralising president.
Joe Biden now gives you the weapons to strike deep into Russia. A bit late?
‘Late decision, by a long shot. When a partner explains to you why a certain supply of weapons is not possible, you know that the real question is always political will. And it concerns all our partners, not just the US. Now a lot will depend on concrete missile deliveries and how we will be allowed to use them. But we have to abandon the idea that one type of weapon changes everything’.
Will Russia react by waving the nuclear threat?
“It is the usual bluff. They will wait to see how this move on long-range missiles is implemented, because they know that often the decisions announced by our partners do not inflict unbearable damage on them. They will respond with conventional means. Besides, I don’t see how they can launch into further escalation, because they already do it all the time anyway. They have one goal, to destroy Ukraine. And they pursue it’.
Does he believe Trump can resolve the conflict? He says he will in a day.
“At its core, war is simple, men and women killing each other. But the higher you go on the scale of war, the more complicated it is. And when a leader says he will end a war in the blink of an eye, I can tell you it doesn’t work that way.”
Does Trump underestimate the cost of abandoning Ukraine? It would be seen as his Afghanistan, a humiliation.
‘Absolutely. The three main players in the war, Trump, Zelensky and Putin, cannot afford to lose or look weak. That is why they will continue to fight and the stakes will rise further and in fact we are seeing further escalation. Putin has launched another massive attack on our civilian infrastructure. His troops continue to advance and he throws everything he has into the battle, to achieve a better position on the ground in view of potential, I stress, potential, negotiations’.
And Zelensky?
“Zelensky does not bend. He keeps looking for ways to put pressure on Russia and Trump. He recently said there will be no quick fix. Now he continues to deploy all the forces he has in the Kursk and Donbass to slow down the Russian advance. He announced that Ukraine has produced 100 missiles. All actors are following the trajectory of escalation in view of Trump’s arrival’.
Will Kiev then accept a truce in exchange for American security guarantees?
“What needs to be done to end the war should first be asked of Moscow, not Kiev. I still don’t understand who wants to push Ukraine to make concessions instead of pushing Putin to stop. Since 2014, this strategy has never worked. Especially if the commitments are only on paper. We in 1994 gave up our nuclear weapons in exchange for a guarantee that we would never be attacked. I don’t think Zelensky will give up NATO and I don’t think it is impossible to get into it, even with Trump.”
Why is the idea of a near truce spreading in Europe?
“It is western politicians who want to end the war as an end in itself, regardless of the consequences. They just want the consequences not to come while they are in government. And this strategy does not lead to peace. At most, it can lead to a short pause after which the war flares up again on a different scale.”
What do western countries risk in this scenario?
“If they allow Putin to prevail, they will not only have lost Ukraine. They will have lost the West, because those who follow this war in China, in Africa, in Latin America will see that the West is not capable of defending its values of freedom, democracy, the rule of law. And then others will also attack Western interests in the world, convinced that the West is no longer what they knew’.
What is Putin aiming at instead at this stage?
“It is not enough for him to control the territories, he wants the loss of Ukrainian statehood. He wants to prove that Ukraine is a failed state, that it cannot exist outside the body of the Russian empire. He acts this way because he despises Ukraine and because he seeks its place in the history of the Russian empire. This is how he thinks: he sees that Tsar Peter I in 1709 or Empress Catherine II in 1795 always managed to subjugate Ukraine. So he thinks that if he loses this battle, he will be a loser before history. Western leaders think about the next elections, he thinks about the centuries of Russian history before and after him‘.
What can be a winning strategy for Kiev?
“The West must accept that it cannot want Ukraine to win and Russia not to lose at the same time. It doesn’t work. Since 2022, the West has been trying to reduce Russia’s ability to fight, but it cannot imagine Russia losing. And in that case, welcome to endless war. If you are serious about stopping the war, you have to make it clear that Ukraine’s future lies in NATO and the EU. And you have to keep putting pressure on Putin to change his calculations, instead of looking for ways for Ukraine to bend. Putin is less strong than he pretends to be: why else rely on Pyongyang’s soldiers and ammunition?”.
There are complaints in Ukraine about the centralisation of decision-making in the hands of Zelensky and his right-hand man Andriy Yermak. Is that so?
‘In wartime a certain degree of centralisation is necessary: Zelensky is the supreme commander. Of course, it is true, Ukraine must remain a democracy and pass a daily test in balancing centralisation and respect for democratic principles and rules’.
Kuleba is pessimistic: ‘If this continues, we will lose the war. And the situation in the country is dramatic :Ukraine, when the soldier no longer believes: 100,000 accused of desertion, this is also perceived by the fact that Zelensky has repeatedly called for Ukraine to join NATO (War in Ukraine: Zelensky says NATO membership could end ‘hot phase’).
Even though Russia is showing strong signs of weakening.
Below: North Korean soldiers, whose presence alongside Russian troops would be seen as a sign of weakness.
