The trigger is not a single one, but the convergence of three critical factors. First, the logistical disruption in the Red Sea, a major global trade corridor, is increasing and slowing down the transport of olive oil to North America. Second, rising oil prices – with contributions exceeding $100 per barrel in 2026 – are structurally increasing production, packaging and distribution costs. And thirdly, US trade policy is adding further pressure with tariffs of up to 15 per cent on European products, the main suppliers to the US market..
This phenomenon is not minor. As analyst Phil Lempert has pointed out, the conflict in the Middle East acts as an ‘invisible tax’ on food, affecting the entire food chain across the board. And in this scenario, olive oil – imported, premium and highly dependent on international logistics – becomes one of the most vulnerable.
However, the impact is not homogeneous. While the lower value-added categories (virgin and lampante in industrial blends) are the first to suffer demand adjustments, high-end extra virgin maintains, for now, a certain resilience. The reason is structural: their consumption in the US meets not only price criteria, but also health, origin and gastronomic positioning..
