Quick Take — Olive oil consumption in the US affected by the war in Iran

The US, the world’s second largest consumer with an annual volume of 380,000 to 400,000 tonnes, is facing a perfect storm in its main imported vegetable oil.

The trigger is not a single one, but the convergence of three critical factors. First, the logistical disruption in the Red Sea, a major global trade corridor, is increasing and slowing down the transport of olive oil to North America. Second, rising oil prices – with contributions exceeding $100 per barrel in 2026 – are structurally increasing production, packaging and distribution costs. And thirdly, US trade policy is adding further pressure with tariffs of up to 15 per cent on European products, the main suppliers to the US market..

This phenomenon is not minor. As analyst Phil Lempert has pointed out, the conflict in the Middle East acts as an ‘invisible tax’ on food, affecting the entire food chain across the board. And in this scenario, olive oil – imported, premium and highly dependent on international logistics – becomes one of the most vulnerable.

However, the impact is not homogeneous. While the lower value-added categories (virgin and lampante in industrial blends) are the first to suffer demand adjustments, high-end extra virgin maintains, for now, a certain resilience. The reason is structural: their consumption in the US meets not only price criteria, but also health, origin and gastronomic positioning..

Quick Take — Flood revives concerns over rising food prices in Europe

The winter larder is depleted as rains devastate crops in Spain, Portugal, France and Morocco…

“It is very difficult to replace some parts of the winter vegetable basket, especially those from Spain and Morocco, so I think we will see the effects very soon, and later on, we will probably also see effects on fruit, and then also on meat, dairy… and olive oil.” Central banks have begun to recognise the influence of extreme weather on inflation dynamics… Financial Times

Of course Sicily should also be considered.