Putin’s next targets are Moldova – whose history is little known but significant – and, above all, Romania.
Above: coat of arms of the USSR
Drafted on 20 January, updated on 2 April 2025. Above: coat of arms of the USSR
(*) ‘Known’ only as the birthplace of Nicolai Lilin; the book that broughthim to the attention of the Italian public is *Siberian Education*, published in 2009 by Einaudi, which, following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, attracted much criticism for its pro-Russian stance. Moldova is also known as Moldavia, but its inhabitants do not like that name, which has Russian origins.
Russia cuts off gas supplies to Transnistria to destabilise Moldova
A humanitarian catastrophe looms for the 367,000 inhabitants of Transnistria, a region of Moldova living under the rule of a pro-Russian separatist entity [Transnistria decided to secede from Moldova in the early 1990s, following the break-up of the USSR. Transnistria is a ‘ghost state’, not recognised by the international community].
Counting on growing discontent in Transnistria, as well as in Moldova, ahead of the parliamentary elections, the Kremlin intends to overthrow the pro-European government [of Moldova].
Closed schools, freezing homes, power cuts, a stagnant economy and, for the most part, forced unemployment… 2025 has got off to a very bad start for the 367,000 inhabitants of Transnistria, a breakaway region in the east of Moldova. Although governed for three decades by a pro-Russian authoritarian regime, this narrow, landlocked strip of territory between Ukraine and Moldova saw its gas supply cut off by Moscow on 1 January.
This is both the logical consequence of a dispute between Russia and Moldova – a debt to Gazprom contested by the Moldovans – and a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On 1 January, Kyiv cut off the gas pipeline running through its territory which supplied Russian gas to Moldova, and therefore to Transnistria.
Transnistria, which is not recognised by any state in the world, is even harder hit, as Russian gas covered 100 per cent of its needs and was supplied ‘free of charge’. That is to say, in exchange for its leaders aligning themselves with Moscow, the maintenance of a detachment of the Russian army – which the Moldovan authorities are demanding be withdrawn – and a form of annexation of the population through the distribution of Russian passports, accompanied by social benefits such as access to the Russian pension system.
Rejecting offers of aid from Moldova (purchasing gas from Europe) and Ukraine (purchasing coal), the Transnistrian Supreme Council voted on 10 January to extend the state of economic emergency until 8 February inclusive. Officially, Transnistria continues to rely solely on the resumption of Russian gas supplies. “Today, Transnistria is living in conditions akin to a humanitarian disaster, accompanied by a political crisis, ” says Anatoli Dirun, director of the School of Political Science in Tiraspol (below is a billboard in the city’s streets).
Inflationary spiral
The majority of the population is seeing their living conditions collapse and is entering ‘survival mode’. “We live in a house heated by electricity,” Klavdia Boulgac, a resident of Tiraspol, tells us over the phone. “Since 1 January, the gas supply to all private homes has been cut off. My husband spends his days looking for wood to heat the house. Our two children are freezing. We can’t carry on like this; it’s unbearable. We’re planning to go to Moldova with our last savings.”
The situation is only slightly less dire for residents of block-of-flats. “It’s about 10°C in my flat,” complains Ksenia Boussuioc, a resident of Bender. “We use auxiliary electric heaters, but as these are switched off for eight hours a day, the cold returns,” she explains. The water supply is also cut off for eight hours because the pumps are no longer working. And yet, we’re lucky that the weather is mild for January: 4°C by day and –2°C by night on average. I don’t know how we’ll survive if the temperature drops to –10°C. All the water pipes will burst! ”
The inhabitants of Transnistria, who are largely Russian-speaking – unlike the Moldovans, who are bilingual in Romanian and Russian – remain under the influence of local and Russian media, which blame the Moldovan authorities and, incidentally, Kyiv for the energy crisis. Moldova’s pro-European government points the finger at the Kremlin, which, by cutting off gas supplies, is triggering an inflationary spiral in Moldova, accompanied by rising public discontent.
“The crisis was provoked by Moscow with the aim of turning Moldovan voters against the government ahead of the 2025 parliamentary elections,” said Vlad Lupan, a former Moldovan diplomat . “The aim is to make people believe that the Moldovan government is solely responsible for the failure to renew the contract with Gazprom and that it is now incapable of managing the consequences.”
The Kremlin, which failed to defeat the pro-European incumbent Maia Sandu in the November 2024 presidential elections, despite an intense media campaign and a series of acts of interference, is now plotting its revenge, seeking to bring her down.
Tensions have escalated recently, with the expulsion of three Russian diplomats and, above all , the arrest of the pro-Russian leader of Gagauzia, Eugenia Gutul.
Of course, Moldova is just one of Putin’s many targets.
From the Gulf of Finland to Georgia, viathe Baltic states, Romania,Moldova, Transnistria and Bulgaria, not to mention distant Serbia, Putin is plotting against those he still regards as satellites of the former Warsaw Pact, to be brought back into the fold of ‘Mother Russia ’.
Naturally ,Ukraine – including the Donbas and Crimea – is seen as a target for Russification, whilst we must not forget Belarus, the Kremlin’s loyal satellite state, where freedom of expression is severely restricted.
Hungary and Slovakia also fall within Russia’s sphere of influence.
However, after several months of winter cold, Putin has decided that Transnistria will receive gas as a “humanitarian gesture” from the Kremlin.
Moldova , on the other hand, will remain cut off from this supply, pending elections that may eventually bring a Moscow-backed puppet government to power.Just as has recently happened in Abkhazia.
Meanwhile, in Romania, six people have been arrested in connection with the pro-Russian plot involving “Vlad the Impaler”… Two high-ranking Russian diplomats, the military attaché and his deputy, were also expelled fromRomania on Wednesday after being in contact with the conspirators..
The defendants are accused of discussing with Russian spies Romania’s withdrawal from NATO, the abolition of the current constitution and constitutional order, the dissolution of political parties, as well as “the removal of all employees from state institutions . . . changing the country’s name, flag and national anthem”.
This case is also of interest: three Bulgarian nationals were found guilty of spying for Russia at the Old Bailey in London, in a trial that the police described as one of the most significant espionage cases to have come to light in Britain in recent decades.
Conclusion:
It is highly likely that Trump, as he has stated on several occasions, will abandon the defence of Europe and all bases on the continent. And it is possible that he will not honour NATO commitments, failing to come to the aid of one of its members if it were attacked.
A European army is therefore desirable, to be established as soon as possible, not least because the issue could affect us more directly, given that Trump and Putin are aiming to establish clearly defined spheres of influence. See *La Repubblica* of 7 March 2025, below, on the second page: “ The roof of the world split in two: Greenland (Denmark) to Trump, Svalbard (Norway) to Putin”.
