Quick Take — US: with duties, food will cost more

“on the one hand Mexico is the main supplier of vegetables to the southern US, on the other hand Canada supplies tomatoes and pulses. Although many of these crops can be replaced or substituted by local produce, the ‘disrupting’ effect of established supply chains could lead to price spikes or shortages, as happened with avocados in January which became very expensive on US shelves. James Knightley, chief economist at ING, has estimated that the effect for a US family of four will be about $3,342 in one year considering all possible increases

Quick Take — US manufacturers reported a sharp drop in new orders and employment in February

fuelling fears that the economy is losing momentum as growth expectations also fell sharply The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s ongoing estimate of US GDP growth, also released on Monday, pointed to a 2.8% decline in the first quarter, a much steeper drop than the 1.5% decline it had suggested on Friday. Below is the latest inflation figure. Read this article

Quick Take — The steep rise in the cost of morning coffee is causing discontent in Brazil

Coffee prices have risen globally due to extreme weather related to climate change, but the nearly 40 per cent increase in Latin America’s largest economy last year has become symbolic of a broader discontent with food and drink inflation that has weighed on Lula Inacio Da Silva’s approval rates… According to an industry association, the average Brazilian drank 2.2 per cent less coffee in the year to October…The cost of a basket of basic groceries rose 14.2 per cent last year, including a 25 per cent increase in the price of beef cuts, the Brazilian supermarket association said…Meanwhile, struggling Brazilians are switching to cheaper coffee blends. Source

Quick Take — USA: Thousands of tonnes of eggs will be imported from Turkey due to bird flu

According to the Department of Agriculture, about 18 million birds will be culled in December 2024 and 23 million in January 2025. In three years, the spread of the H5N1 virus has forced American farms to cull 158 million turkeys, chickens and, above all, laying hens (from FT: some retailers, including Walmart, are rationing egg sales to the public).

This disease will affect inflation in the US

Quick Take — US inflation, helped by egg price hike, unexpectedly rises to 3% in January

Wednesday’s consumer price index figure exceeded the expectations of economists polled by Reuters, who predicted inflation would remain stable at 2.9% in December. The month-on-month increase – for January – also exceeded expectations, at 0.5 per cent compared to the 0.3 per cent expected. A big contributor to the increase was the surge in the price of eggs, which rose 15.2% during the month and 53% year-on-year, partly due to the impact of bird flu.

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Bird flu: global spread of virus fuels fears of human contamination

In Italy, where we had prosciuttopoli, a scandal that broke out in 2019 and was never seriously tackled, absolutely nothing is happening, despite the fact that swine plague licks the borders of Langhirano (Parma), it is surprising that this is happening given that Ettore Prandini, president of Coldiretti, is a farmer. And in the USA there has been the first death of a human being