Quick Take — Flood revives concerns over rising food prices in Europe

The winter larder is depleted as rains devastate crops in Spain, Portugal, France and Morocco…

“It is very difficult to replace some parts of the winter vegetable basket, especially those from Spain and Morocco, so I think we will see the effects very soon, and later on, we will probably also see effects on fruit, and then also on meat, dairy… and olive oil.” Central banks have begun to recognise the influence of extreme weather on inflation dynamics… Financial Times

Of course Sicily should also be considered.

Quick Take — Clothing down, food flat. Confimprese and Circana certify a mini-ice in consumption by 2025

Last year, consumption fell, in value terms, by -1.4%.

This was confirmed by the customary Confimprese-Jakala observatory, relating to the months of January-December 2025, according to which the downturn was accentuated in the latter part of the year, with the period September-December showing a fall of -2.9%.

This figure is heavy, especially considering that it is calculated ‘in value’. So it means that not even the inflation effect (which according to preliminary ISTAT data will be at 1.5%) helped to straighten out the final balance or keep it at least on par.

LCC: Time-wise, market growth remained strong until the end of August From September onwards, a more cautious and resigned attitude among consumers emerged. October represented a moment of temporary recovery, but was followed by a new weakening in November and a negative close in December, with a value figure of just 0.4% and a contraction in volumes. Consumer packaged goods ended the year in negative territory (-0.9% in December in volumes).

Quick Take — Mastrolia New Princes (GS- Carrefour and more): ‘High prices – of the branded industry – slow down consumption’

“The cost structure has changed profoundly. Most commodities, agricultural and non-agricultural, are now at significantly lower levels than the peaks of previous years. The exceptions are limited to a few sectors, such as meat and coffee. Energy costs, both electricity and gas, are also falling sharply,’ he says.

According to Mastrolia, the rigidity of price lists does not originate in distribution. “High prices squeeze volumes, slow down consumption and end up penalising the entire economic system. It is not in the interest of large retailers to maintain them. The problem lies in a part of the branded industry that continues to defend price structures built in an emergency phase, when costs were significantly higher. Today that phase is over, but the adjustment of price lists has not taken place, creating an obvious disconnect between industrial costs and final prices’.

What are the risks in this situation?
The risk is that structural effects are created. If prices do not adjust to real costs, volumes are reduced, demand weakens and a vicious circle is triggered that also penalises the industry itself. The sustainability of margins cannot be separated from the sustainability of consumption‘.

CorrierEconomia of 19 January 2026

After the one about Confcommercio, another distortion I denounced some time ago, talking about industry margins doping inflation and making consumer spending expensive.

Below: an article from December 2025 on GS. Drafted 19 January , updated 22 January 2026

Lusetti (Confcommercio): ‘Let’s not harass farmers. Price rises cause energy and climate’ (and raw materials)

The fact of not dealing directly with farmers CANNOT be a boast because it means that those who buy, in the large-scale retail trade, are not doing it well because they accept intermediaries and opacity in the purchase prices and margins of all the actors in the chain. Most probably, by negotiating directly with farmers, they could obtain better prices that would benefit their customers

Quick Take — Pam has to decide if it is a supermarket or if it wants to be a discounter

Luigi Rubinelli writes: ‘At Pam there is an obsession with comparison with the discount store. This can be seen in the price communication variations. Too much repetition”

I would add that this fixation was already there years ago, see the first picture below which is from 2021 . The second picture below is from 2026 and is from Alimentando: I included it to make it clear that slogans and colours are always the same.

Note that in 2024 the group’s growth was lower than inflation but above all that Pam, in the same year, did NOT rank among the cheapest chains in Italy.

If Pam wants to measure itself against the discounters, instead of doing useless generic communication, why does it not do comparative advertising against the discounters, like – for example – Leclerc against Lidl, in France?

N.B.: in 2025 Pam only ‘distinguished itself’ – so to speak – by having some of its cashiers do the ‘trolley test’, sacking them and being obliged to reinstate them, making a big impression.

Quick Take — The President of the Council has the same positions as Trump but shows more diplomacy: she admits climate change but does nothing concrete

rather demonise the ecological transition. Indeed, Trump has just suspended the operating permits for all major offshore projects under construction in the USwith immediate effecton 22 December (Le Monde). The announcement concerns in particular five projects located on the east coast that represent a total investment of $25 billion (around €21 billion). These fields, which had received federal credits under Joe Biden’s tenure, were supposed to provide electricity to more than 2.5 million households and businesses and create nearly 10,000 jobs (Le Monde).

The political risk is great as the cost of electricity in the US has risen by 5% this year, the power grid is obsolete, and the ‘inflation theme’ is hot (Le Monde). .

While in our country, industrial production is retreating, also under the blows of an Italian energy cost that is among the highest in Europe.

Below: the ecological transition does not stop (Lifegate December 2025), despite Trump and Meloni.

Quick Take — Retail prices in Italy and inflation: antitrust investigates

In a nutshell, food inflation is higher than total inflation (which includes other items, such as energy, services, etc.) and therefore the AGCM opened a file on it.

We fear it has done so unnecessarily because the prices of many consumer goods – used every day in the lives of Italians – have risen sharply, much higher than average, even in the food sector as a whole. Below – in the first image – you will find some examples. This has also happened in other countries (e.g. meat in the USA).

Even during Covid- 19 a similar investigation was triggered, which then ended up in thin air: the real, long-standing problem, which has never been addressed and solved, is that of farmers’ profitability (see Repubblica piece below). On this issue you can also read this article.

Written on 24 December, updated on 25 December 2025

Quick Take — US: dollar sales of fresh beef increased by 12.4% to USD 44 billion

But beef prices have risen 6.7% in the past year, with inflation accelerating in recent months, according to data from Chicago-basedCircana.

Despite rising prices, beef is seeing growth in premium segments, such as the Prime line of Certified Angus Beef (pictured below). Source : Progressive Grocer

The increase in total volume (kg) – premium and non-premium – was still very strong at 5.7%. Read more on the subject here.

JBS: skyrocketing meat prices in the US amid use of anti-obesity drugs and increasing protein consumption

The anti-obesity molecule revolution is challenging the model of the industry giants, which could lose up to USD 90 billion in the US by 2031. As a result, multinationals are trying to switch to Europe and a more protein-rich offer. And US restaurants – given the level of meat inflation – are struggling and reducing staff and portions of their dishes