Quick Take — Falling alcohol consumption

Inflation is also a factor. Drafted 1 September, updated 3 September 2025

Yesterday – 2 September – ConstellationBrands🍺🥃 closed at -6.6% indicated that in 2026 it will have revenues from beer sales down 2-4%

1) the stock has lost 40% from its highs over the past 12 months

2) Constellation is one of the world’s giants in beer, wine and spirits sales (source: Inglobando)

Quick Take — At the supermarket, one in four products is Italian. Over 11.6 billion spent

Gs1 Italy, in 2024 the basket volume marks -0.7%. The most widespread ‘indicator’ of Italianness – the economic report points out – is the tricolour flag, present on over 16 thousand products with positive annual sales in value and stable in volume. It is followed by the claims ‘100% Italian’, which remains stable in value but loses 1.5% in volume, and ‘produced in Italy’, with negative sales in value and volume. Analysts point out that “2024 was not an easy year for European geographical indications either: in the basket of 4,888 references and 1.6 billion euro turnover of PDO, DOC and DOCG products, only PDO references record positive sales in value (5.8%) and volume (2.7%)” for a total of almost 803 million euro.

Flags with the tricolour no longer work. So says someone who put them on Esselunga organic products 25 years ago. Also because they often ‘don’t beat inflation’ and, without proper labelling on the product’s characteristics, they could simply be ‘Italian sounding’. Read also : The false myth of ‘100% Italian’ food

Quick Take — Donald Trump’s grand plan to save Florida’s tomatoes: make Mexico pay

The US president has imposed a 17 per cent tariff on fruit exports from the southern neighbour to save the dwindling number of local farmers…Mexico supplies more than 60 per cent of the fresh tomatoes consumed in the United States, a clear example of how the country has gained market share in various sectors, becoming the US’s largest trading partner since the North American Free Trade Agreement came into force in 1994…Mexico’s National Agriculture Council has stated that it is the consumers who will pay, predicting a price increase of 11.5%, also because those grown in the US are of different species

Quick Take — Food Marketing Institute (USA): 80% of suppliers expect duties to affect prices and supply chains

According to IMF data shared in that briefing, 55% of consumers reported in July that tariffs were their main concern. This sentiment rose from 54% in March and 49% in January…

How do these concerns translate into consumer prices, especially since the food-at-home consumer price index (CPI-index of inflation) has continued to remain fairly constant

…80% of food in the US is produced domestically, some categories are particularly dependent on imports … Dr. Ricky Volpe, associate professor of agribusiness at California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo, California, provided additional context during the briefing, using the example of a sultana and cinnamon bagel made with ingredients that are primarily imported.

“If 50 per cent of a bagel is subject to an average tariff of 18 per cent, the total expected increase in the cost of producing a bagel will be between 9 per cent and 10 per cent of the cost of production, which is not insignificant. These food companies are really operating on low margins, so this is a cost increase that is likely to be passed on through the chain “…

The impact of tariffs on non-food will be much more important (with China being the No 1 producer and importer), with a much longer lead time than food though, because consumption is slower and there are certainly stocks.

Quick Take — Americans ate 1 billion fewer meals in restaurants between January and March than in the comparable quarter a year ago

… McDonald’s CEO, Chris Kempczinski, said that while the burger chain’s sales returned to growth last quarter, visits from low-income customers in particular fell by double digits between April and June as their real incomes dropped…

..While overall food inflation has slowed, the cost of eating out is outpacing that of cooking at home, with the consumer price index for food at home up 2.4 per cent and food away from home up 3.8 per cent in the 12 months to June. The US Department of Agriculture predicts that the cost of eating out will continue to rise faster than meals at home. Last year, consumers spent $1.1 trillion on food at home and $1.5 trillion on food away from home, including taxes and tips…

About McDonald’s read also here.

Unfair Practices : The failure of regulation

Penalties for unfair practices in 2023-2024 amount to only 665,000 euros against estimated damages of at least 350 million annually. in essence on prices and unfair practices the ‘dolce far niente’ of Italian politics continues. Remember this when you see the next tractors in the square or when you hear about the sad affairs of groups like Auchan, Casino, Carrefour Italia and others