Quick Take — Calbee, which produces half of Japan’s snacks, removes dyes from its products due to the oil crisis in the Middle East

Japan’s most famous crisp brand will remove the colour from its packaging this month as the war in the Middle East squeezes supplies of oil-based dyes and manufacturers grapple with ‘ink inflation‘…

Japan depends on the Middle East for more than 90 per cent of its crude oil and the government criticised Calbee’s announcement. Japan’s deputy chief government secretary Kei Sato stated that the authorities ‘have not received any reports of immediate supply problems at this time, and we believe that the necessary supplies for Japan as a whole are currently secure’…

Some analysts said Calbee’s move bore the hallmarks of a public relations stunt designed to generate attention and show the company taking drastic measures before raising prices…

Clever marketing move or not, the ‘Calbee phenomenon’ is certainly a sign of the inflationary wave and the tensions that are washing over the FMCG world. distribution and the world economy in general.

In fact, the US-Israeli war with Iran has already cost companies around the world at least $25 billion – and the bill is rising, according to a Reuters analysis: at least 279 companies have cited the war as a trigger for defensive actions to blunt financial setbacks, including price increases and production cuts, the analysis shows. Others suspended dividends or buybacks, laid off staff, added fuel surcharges or requested emergency government assistance.

Quick Take — Inflation rises 1.1 %: shopping trolley spikes, 4.2 % in most purchased goods

According to ISTAT data, consumer prices rose by 2.7% compared to the same month last year – almost double the 1.7% recorded in March. A sharp rise, driven by 2 items that weigh directly on Italians’ daily lives: energy and fresh food. The year-on-year acceleration is from 0.8% to 3.1% on goods, the pressure on services slows down (from 2.8% to 2.4%). The trend rate of change in the prices of food, household and personal care goods rises (from 2.2% to 2.3%), as does that of high-frequency goods (from 3.1% to 4.2%)…

Quick Take — Inflation up, Coop: ‘Defence of purchasing power cannot only weigh on the large-scale retail trade’

In April, the grip of inflation returned and rekindled concerns in an increasingly unstable international context. In fact, geopolitical tensions are beginning to translate into concrete effects on prices: the first signs are coming from energy goods, while the shopping trolley is affected by the acceleration of unprocessed foodstuffs. The data released by Istat returns a worsening picture, with 1 .2% on a monthly basis and 2 .8% on an annual basis, in clear acceleration compared to the previous month.

Source

Quick Take — Carrefour leaves Turkey: 89% of CarrefourSA sold to Aydin Group

In detail, the Turkish subsidiary CarrefourSA is being acquired by the Aydin group, owner of the discount chain A101, already strongly rooted in the country. The agreement covers 89% of the capital: of this share, 32% was held directly by Carrefour while the remaining 57% was held by the local partner Sabanci, with which the French retailer had developed its presence in the country over the years.

The sale effectively marks Carrefour’s exit from a complex market, characterised by strong macroeconomic volatility, inflationary pressure and particularly aggressive competitive dynamics, especially in the discount segment. It is precisely these factors that have contributed to progressively reducing the attractiveness of Turkey within the group’s strategic priorities…

(which seems to want to focus mainly on France, Spain and Brazil).

Below: a Carrefour Turkey private label product

Quick Take — The next global food crisis

The world must act to protect the poorest from the effects that will linger long after the fighting is over.

After only seven weeks, food shortages and even famine now seem more likely for millions of people in vulnerable countries in Africa and Asia…

Recent data from the World Bank clearly show the link between energy and food. In March, the organisation’s energy price index rose 41.6 percent, driven by a 59.4 percent increase in European natural gas and a 45.8 percent increase in Brent oil. In the same month, food prices increased by 2.7% and fertiliser prices by 26.2%. The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) warned that global fertiliser prices could rise by an average of 15-20% in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists…

The Gulf states now directly influence food production and movement, supplying key chemical raw materials, exporting large volumes of finished fertilisers and controlling the logistical corridors through which food and agricultural products move across much of the Middle East, Central and East Asia and Africa. ..

The old image of the Gulf monarchies as mere exporters of oil and gas is no longer valid. Today, the region is at the centre of modern agriculture, not only as an important producer of fertilisers, but also as a driving force for the development of fertiliser industries in neighbouring countries…

Financial Times

To understand what is happening in Italy read here.

Quick Take — The retailer’s brand reaches 50% in the main European markets, setting a new record. In Italy, however, it remains at 36%

According to Circana, growth is set to accelerate in 2026: inflation and Ai-driven shopping will favour the cheapest products for the same benefits …

circana’s analysis finds that retailers have managed to keep prices low and quality high. MDDs are intercepting health and lifestyle trends, offering premium offerings and innovative product launches with more dynamism than national brands. Retailers’ strategy of targeting social media content at younger shoppers who are less loyal to traditional brands is also playing a key role in sustaining demand…

Below: Esselunga, under my leadership, was already at around 35% private label in 2003 (thanks to the Esselunga, Naturama, Esselunga Bio and Fidel brands, the first price created to combat discount stores).