Quick Take — US inflation rises to 2.9% in August . And unemployment figures are not good

Source

Applications for US unemployment benefits jumped last week to the highest level in almost four years, indicating employers are firing more workers. Initial claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000 in the week ended Sept. 6, the highest since October 2021, according to data from the US Department of Labor. That’s significantly higher than the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists, which predicted 235,000 applications.

Thursday’s figures are just the latest in a quickening drumbeat of worsening news for President Donald Trump on the economic front, from jobs to manufacturing and inflation. Last week, a monthly report on employment showed the whole of the US added just 22,000 jobs in August, building on the previous month’s sobering jobs data, which spurred Trump to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and install a loyalist. More recent BLS revisions also cut job growth numbers by half during most of the last year of the Biden Administration. -NatashaSolo-Lyons

Bloomberg

Quick Take — Historic change: Supermarkets lead volume growth, overtaking Discounts

“From 2019 to 2023, their [the discounters’] turnover grew at an average annual rate of 9.3 per cent, compared to 5.7 per cent for the other operators”(we reported this here). Then there was aturnaround: the growth in volume of the hyper and super channel exceeded (2.5%) that of the discounters (1.3%) . E-commerce was very good at 8.4% (see first table below).

Circana data show how, after 9.1% in 2023, value sales grew more slowly in 2024 ( 2.4%) to consolidate in 2025 with a further 3.7%.

The significant novelty is that, unlike the previous two-year period, growth is no longer just an effect of prices, but is accompanied by a recovery in real demand: volumes, in fact, declining by 0.5% in 2023, turn positive in 2024 ( 1.8%) and accelerate in 2025 ( 2.3%). Supporting this rebalancing is also the dynamics of prices, which after a 9.5% surge in 2023, stop at 0.6% in 2024 and travel at 1.4% in 2025, returning to physiological levels.

Below: one of the factors in the recovery of the Iper Super channel (in which there are also superstores) was probably the strength of the private label, which expressed convenience, and which is beating the leading brands (such as Barilla or Coca-Cola, to give examples, see the second table). A comparison between the different channels – hyper/super/superstore ‘versus’ discounters – on prices is unfortunately not possible to date.

p.s.: looking at the ISTAT data, the drop in volumes highlighted a few days ago, seems to affect only small retailers, not the GD (page 3).

Note that ISTAT has only been using barcodes since 2020 and that not all retailers use them.

Compiled 7 September, updated 8 September 2025

Quick Take — Falling alcohol consumption

Inflation is also a factor. Drafted 1 September, updated 3 September 2025

Yesterday – 2 September – ConstellationBrands🍺🥃 closed at -6.6% indicated that in 2026 it will have revenues from beer sales down 2-4%

1) the stock has lost 40% from its highs over the past 12 months

2) Constellation is one of the world’s giants in beer, wine and spirits sales (source: Inglobando)

Quick Take — At the supermarket, one in four products is Italian. Over 11.6 billion spent

Gs1 Italy, in 2024 the basket volume marks -0.7%. The most widespread ‘indicator’ of Italianness – the economic report points out – is the tricolour flag, present on over 16 thousand products with positive annual sales in value and stable in volume. It is followed by the claims ‘100% Italian’, which remains stable in value but loses 1.5% in volume, and ‘produced in Italy’, with negative sales in value and volume. Analysts point out that “2024 was not an easy year for European geographical indications either: in the basket of 4,888 references and 1.6 billion euro turnover of PDO, DOC and DOCG products, only PDO references record positive sales in value (5.8%) and volume (2.7%)” for a total of almost 803 million euro.

Flags with the tricolour no longer work. So says someone who put them on Esselunga organic products 25 years ago. Also because they often ‘don’t beat inflation’ and, without proper labelling on the product’s characteristics, they could simply be ‘Italian sounding’. Read also : The false myth of ‘100% Italian’ food

Quick Take — Donald Trump’s grand plan to save Florida’s tomatoes: make Mexico pay

The US president has imposed a 17 per cent tariff on fruit exports from the southern neighbour to save the dwindling number of local farmers…Mexico supplies more than 60 per cent of the fresh tomatoes consumed in the United States, a clear example of how the country has gained market share in various sectors, becoming the US’s largest trading partner since the North American Free Trade Agreement came into force in 1994…Mexico’s National Agriculture Council has stated that it is the consumers who will pay, predicting a price increase of 11.5%, also because those grown in the US are of different species

Quick Take — Food Marketing Institute (USA): 80% of suppliers expect duties to affect prices and supply chains

According to IMF data shared in that briefing, 55% of consumers reported in July that tariffs were their main concern. This sentiment rose from 54% in March and 49% in January…

How do these concerns translate into consumer prices, especially since the food-at-home consumer price index (CPI-index of inflation) has continued to remain fairly constant

…80% of food in the US is produced domestically, some categories are particularly dependent on imports … Dr. Ricky Volpe, associate professor of agribusiness at California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo, California, provided additional context during the briefing, using the example of a sultana and cinnamon bagel made with ingredients that are primarily imported.

“If 50 per cent of a bagel is subject to an average tariff of 18 per cent, the total expected increase in the cost of producing a bagel will be between 9 per cent and 10 per cent of the cost of production, which is not insignificant. These food companies are really operating on low margins, so this is a cost increase that is likely to be passed on through the chain “…

The impact of tariffs on non-food will be much more important (with China being the No 1 producer and importer), with a much longer lead time than food though, because consumption is slower and there are certainly stocks.

Quick Take — Americans ate 1 billion fewer meals in restaurants between January and March than in the comparable quarter a year ago

McDonald’s CEO, Chris Kempczinski, said that while the burger chain’s sales returned to growth last quarter, visits from low-income customers in particular fell by double digits between April and June as their real incomes dropped…

..While overall food inflation has slowed, the cost of eating out is outpacing that of cooking at home, with the consumer price index for food at home up 2.4 per cent and food away from home up 3.8 per cent in the 12 months to June. The US Department of Agriculture predicts that the cost of eating out will continue to rise faster than meals at home. Last year, consumers spent $1.1 trillion on food at home and $1.5 trillion on food away from home, including taxes and tips…

About McDonald’s read also here.